OPINION | Lessons from Dhaka and Yangon: Will Pakistan’s Hangor Subs Follow the Same Troubled Course?

by Commodore Ranjit Rai (Retd)

China’s Struggles as a Defence Exporter

China faces a significant challenge in its efforts to become a major defence exporter. Many nations that have purchased weapons from the dragon are now facing quality issues. The fifth-largest global defence exporter is experiencing a fall in its share of defence sales. Among them are China’s all-weather friend Pakistan, along with Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Many nations that procured weapons from China have now stopped buying big-ticket items from that country; the list includes Algeria, Egypt, Iran, and Sri Lanka. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has also reported declining trends in Chinese defence exports.

Key Markets for Chinese Weapons

Over 80% of Chinese weapons sales are to countries based in Asia, 17% of the sales are to countries in Africa, with the remaining sales allocated to Central and South America. Over 60% goes to just three countries, i.e., Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.

These countries are lured by the price tag. Weapons offered by China are not only significantly cheaper than those offered by Western nations but also cost less than those offered by Russia. But they, too, are facing serious quality issues, especially with the submarines purchased from China.

Bangladesh: Idle Ming-Class Submarines and Defective Systems

Bangladesh and Myanmar have both acquired Chinese-built submarines (Ming-class and older designs, respectively), but have faced challenges with upkeep and operational availability.

Both Bangladesh and Myanmar have experienced quality and performance issues with their Chinese-made submarines and other military equipment. Bangladesh, in particular, has faced problems with the Ming-class submarines acquired from China, including technical malfunctions and obsolescence. Myanmar has also reported issues with Chinese fighter jets and radar systems. These problems highlight concerns about the quality and technological capabilities of China’s defence industry exports.

The Bangladesh Navy acquired two Ming-class submarines from China in 2017, which were re-inducted as BNS Nobojatra and BNS Joyjatra. But both are reportedly lying idle due to technical issues. Bangladesh has also faced issues with other Chinese-made equipment, including warships (such as the BNS Nirmul), fighter aircraft (F-7), tanks (MBT-2000), and jet trainers (K-8W). The Bangladesh Navy reported malfunctions with the C-704 missile system on the warship BNS Nirmul, and China demanded additional payment for upgrades.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh has replaced 36 out of 45 Chinese-made Multi Launch Rocket System (MLRS) units with Turkish-made alternatives.

Myanmar: Engine and Aircraft Malfunctions

Myanmar’s acquisition of Chinese-made submarines has reportedly faced challenges, particularly with the installation and maintenance of their engines. While the initial program for these submarines seemed promising, issues arose with the Chinese-built engines, which are also used in other Chinese submarine classes.

The submarines utilise MTU 396 diesel engines, licensed for production in China. Obtaining the necessary German end-use certification for these engines to be installed in exported submarines proved to be a hurdle. Myanmar’s older Chinese-made submarines, along with those of other countries like Bangladesh, have experienced maintenance and performance issues. Myanmar has also reportedly grounded many of its Chinese-made JF-17 fighter jets due to technical malfunctions.

Pakistan: Heavy Reliance on Chinese Military Systems

These are ominous signs for Pakistan, which has 81% of its military hardware from China. During “Operation Sindoor”, Chinese-made weapons and systems deployed by Pakistan, particularly air defence systems and missiles, experienced significant failures and underperformance against Indian forces.

These failures, including the inability to intercept Indian aircraft and missiles, and the malfunction of air-to-air missiles, have led to questions about the reliability of Chinese military technology, including the four Hangor-class submarines it is making for the Pakistan Navy.

The Hangor-Class Submarine Programme

The Hangor-class submarines, while promising, may face similar challenges to those experienced by Bangladesh and Myanmar with their Chinese-built submarines, particularly regarding maintenance and operational readiness. The key concern is whether Pakistan can establish a reliable sustainment pipeline for the Hangor-class, ensuring access to spare parts and maintaining crew proficiency.

As with Thailand’s submarines, if the Hangor-class faces engine issues or other maintenance problems, it could spend extended periods in harbor, diminishing its strategic value. The Hangor-class programme is a significant investment, and if the submarines experience prolonged downtime, the return on investment will be reduced.

Broader Concerns with Chinese Defence Exports

The problem is that China’s defence industry seems to lack the capacity to produce highly sophisticated and reliable military equipment, with many weapons being either substandard or based on outdated technology. Many Chinese weapons are based on outdated technology copied from the West. Also, Chinese weapons systems have not been adequately tested in combat situations.

While Chinese equipment may be cheaper initially, recipient countries often face additional costs for repairs, maintenance, and upgrades, especially when dealing with malfunctions and technological incompatibility.

Developing countries that rely on Chinese arms exports may face significant challenges due to the potential for equipment defects and the limited availability of readily accessible expertise for repairs and maintenance. There are concerns about the lack of transparency and accountability in China’s defence contracts, particularly regarding the supply of defective equipment.

About Author

Commodore Ranjit B Rai (Retd) is the author of the book ‘The Indian Navy @75: Reminiscing the Voyage. He is an RNSC-qualified officer who served as Director Naval Intelligence and Director Naval Operations and writes on maritime matters. He also served as India Representative of Waterman Steam Ships USA and curated a New Delhi Maritime Museum.