OPINION | What Conflict-Hit Ports Tell Us About Gwadar's Future?

by Ashu Mann

Pakistan's military announced on July 8 that three militant attacks carried out between July 6 and July 8 near Quetta, at a police post guarding the Mangi Dam project in Ziarat, and on an army convoy along the N-25 highway near Bela, killed 42 police officers, military personnel, and civilians. Security forces said they subsequently killed 54 militants during follow-up operations. Those figures came only days after an attack on a Pakistan Coast Guards camp in the Panwan area of Jiwani on July 3. The attack was claimed by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) as a "fidayeen" operation, with the group claiming a death toll exceeding 30. Pakistani authorities have not independently confirmed either set of casualty figures.

Together, these incidents have once again drawn attention to the security environment surrounding the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor's (CPEC) flagship port at Gwadar. They also revive a familiar question every time Gwadar returns to the headlines: Can a world-class port truly succeed if the region surrounding it remains unstable?

For Islamabad and Beijing, the latest violence underscores an important reality. Investing billions in cranes, berths, highways, and other infrastructure addresses only part of the challenge. History has rarely been kind to ports located in conflict zones, regardless of how strategically positioned they appear on a map. Increasingly, Gwadar is confronting many of the same obstacles that have limited other ports before it.

Successful ports are built on more than geography. They rely on predictability. Shipping companies choose ports where schedules remain reliable, insurance costs stay manageable, and inland transportation networks operate without disruption. Once conflict becomes a recurring feature of the operating environment, that predictability begins to erode.

Yemen's Port of Aden offers a clear example. Once among the busiest refueling stops along the East-West shipping corridor, years of conflict steadily reduced trade volumes and severely damaged its infrastructure. Its geographic location never changed, but shipping operators simply shifted cargo to safer alternatives.

Iraq's Basra presents a similar case. Despite its vast energy resources and direct access to the Persian Gulf, persistent security threats and weakened logistics networks discouraged investment for years. Trade activity recovered only after stability gradually returned and investor confidence slowly improved.

Beirut illustrates another version of the same lesson. Political instability, economic collapse, and the devastating 2020 port explosion inflicted far greater damage on its position as a Mediterranean trade hub than any geographic disadvantage ever could. Rather than wait for conditions to improve, companies rerouted their supply chains elsewhere.

The common lesson across all three ports is clear: location alone is rarely enough to guarantee long-term success.

Gwadar certainly possesses strategic advantages. It lies close to the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world's oil shipments pass. Chinese planners have also long viewed the port as a strategic gateway connecting western China to the Arabian Sea while reducing dependence on the Malacca Strait. Yet those advantages lose much of their value if the surrounding security environment continues to undermine investor confidence.

Recent events have done little to strengthen that confidence.

In April, three Pakistan Coast Guards personnel were killed after militants attacked a patrol boat near the Pakistan-Iran border, marking the first known attack of its kind against Pakistan's maritime forces at sea. In March 2024, eight militants launched an assault on the Gwadar Port Authority complex. The attack ended with all eight attackers and two soldiers dead. Earlier, in August 2023, a convoy carrying Chinese engineers came under attack near Gwadar, although Pakistani security forces repelled the assault and no Chinese personnel were injured. Before that, in 2019, BLA militants attacked the Pearl Continental Hotel in Gwadar, killing four hotel employees and a Pakistan Navy sailor while reportedly targeting Chinese guests.

Viewed individually, these incidents may appear isolated. Considered together, however, and reinforced by the broader casualty figures released this week across Balochistan, they raise broader concerns about the reliability of the entire logistics ecosystem. A modern port depends on highways, railways, warehouses, communications infrastructure, and secure transportation routes functioning as one integrated network. If critical links are repeatedly disrupted, the reliability of the entire system comes into question.

For global shipping companies, dependability almost always outweighs ambition. Security lockdowns, closed highways, or interrupted freight movements can disrupt supply chains that operate on exceptionally tight schedules. Rising insurance premiums and additional security costs further increase operational risks. Under those conditions, a more distant port with a stronger record of stability often becomes the more attractive commercial choice.

To be fair, Pakistan has invested substantial resources in protecting Gwadar, while China continues to support CPEC through ongoing investment. Both governments continue to promote the city as a future regional logistics hub. However, the experiences of Aden, Basra, and Beirut suggest that infrastructure investment alone cannot indefinitely overcome persistent instability. Investor confidence takes years to build but can be weakened by only a handful of negative headlines.

Companies considering factories, logistics facilities, or export operations evaluate more than the current condition of a port. They assess whether that port will remain secure and operational years into the future. Until Gwadar can answer that question with greater certainty, and with this week's reported death toll of 42 more people across Balochistan making that argument even more difficult, its future will likely continue to be measured against other strategically located ports that possessed geographic advantages but never achieved the lasting stability needed to realize their full potential.

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About the Author

Ashu Mann is an Associate Fellow at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies. He was awarded the Vice Chief of the Army Staff Commendation card on Army Day 2025. He is pursuing a PhD from Amity University, Noida, in Defence and Strategic Studies. His research focuses include the India-China territorial dispute, great power rivalry, and Chinese foreign policy.

Disclaimer: This article represents the author’s independent analysis and perspective based on publicly available information. It does not constitute official guidance, intelligence assessment, or policy recommendation, and does not reflect the positions of Access Hub or any affiliated entities.