OPINION | Poland's New Doctrine: Geo-Economic Statecraft Meets Hybrid Warfare

by Prathik Jayaprakash

Earlier in September, Poland reported a Russian drone incursion involving approximately 19 drones invading its airspace. It marked a new escalation in the ongoing conflict between Russia and the West. Considering the range of the drones and their trajectory, it was clear that the act was not accidental but a deliberate hostility into NATO territory. The war is no longer limited to Ukraine and has forced Poland and NATO to adjust their strategies. In the weeks since, the incident has reshaped the security landscape of Eastern Europe. The irrefutable role of hybrid warfare and the use of drones has exposed the vulnerabilities of all parties involved.

A Deliberate Act of Hostility on NATO’s Eastern Frontier

The deliberate hostility of approximately 19 drones over Poland highlights the critical need for updated defense strategies against modern airborne threats on the NATO frontier.

Poland reacted with a show of political unity and decisive action, with Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Karol Nawrocki setting aside domestic rivalries to coordinate a response. With NATO’s Article 4 being invoked, the violation was deemed an act of aggression, and Russia was condemned. The incident was also not considered an isolated provocation but part of a broader Russian strategy, prompting fighter aircraft to be scrambled.

Beyond the immediate responses, the border with Belarus was also closed—and remains so as of the time of writing. However, this decision came with consequences, as Belarus serves as a critical transit corridor for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Belarus, serving as a launch site for the drones, has imposed costs not only on Belarus and Russia but also indirectly on China.

The willingness of the Polish government to use economic leverage as a statecraft tool, even at the risk of damaging ties with China, reflects a new Polish doctrine: using geo-economic leverage to counter and challenge hybrid threats. While Warsaw’s earlier policies focused on resilience and defense, which would have meant absorbing drone incursions and migrant flows passively, Poland has redefined itself as a front-line state within NATO.

Poland’s Defense Gaps and the Push for Cost-Effective Countermeasures

The incursions revealed a structural weakness in Poland’s defense—having to use relatively expensive air-to-air missiles to intercept low-cost drones. This lack of sustainability has shifted the government’s priorities toward strategic investments. The Ministry of National Defense has expedited procurement of counter-unmanned aircraft systems (C-UAS) and radar technologies.

The broad consensus is that modern platforms like fifth-generation fighters cannot substitute for cost-effective defenses against drones, UAVs, and similar threats.

Russia’s Tactical Gains and NATO’s Economic Strain

From a Russian perspective, their operation aligned with several of their objectives, such as gauging the effectiveness of NATO’s integrated air policing. It also exposed NATO’s economic vulnerabilities, requiring expenditures of significant proportions and causing civilian air traffic disruptions.

Furthermore, Russia was able to shift tactics from drone swarms to reconnaissance aircraft operating without transponders—again forcing NATO interceptions, creating recurring costs and operational strain. Achieving these objectives without escalating to open conflict is a classic example of attrition: eroding their opponent’s resources and political will.

NATO’s Response: Operation Eastern Sentry and Structural Adaptation

NATO has decided to structurally adapt in the face of the impending escalation of conflict. Its most significant development is Operation Eastern Sentry, a multinational air defense initiative for the Eastern Front. With contributions from France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands, the layered defense system can counter drones, missiles, and airspace violations.

The shift in policy from deterrence to a more reactive nature is effective in the face of hybrid threats. Russia’s use of drones and reconnaissance flights shows that deterrence is difficult to enforce when the cost of aggression is negligible and the risk of escalation is limited.

Internal challenges also reportedly plague NATO, as the United States is expected to reduce its troop presence in Romania. Divergence in strategic priorities is concerning for the nascent Operation Eastern Sentry. While Europe prepares for a sustained conflict, the U.S. remains focused on its competition in Asia, and this might spell trouble if European states are unable to compensate for a potential U.S. withdrawal.

The Future of Collective Defense in a Hybrid War Era

Poland’s assertive stance, Russia’s pressure tactics, and NATO’s investments in defensive infrastructure have created a charged atmosphere on NATO territory. Its implications extend beyond Eastern Europe and highlight the complexities and vulnerabilities that accompany advanced military alliances and collective defense.

NATO is particularly challenged to sustain cohesion while managing military expenditure. The expansion of hybrid warfare on NATO territory will likely shape the course of European security in the years to come.

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About Author

Prathik Jayaprakash is a journalist and researcher at Access Hub’s News and Editorials Division. His research areas include global affairs with a focus on historical context and theoretical analysis. E-mail: prathikjayaprakash@hotmail.com